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And begat it came forth the Google Horse

Every thing I thought would happen, is happening!

Etching of Trojan Horse

Etching of Trojan Horse

Google could have released their own web browser. They have. And it looks like it will be very good too. Highly threaded, meaning it won’t crash if one thing flips out, and more secure as it’s highly compartmentalised.

Google could have released their own mobile phone and operating system. They have. Simultaneously the major players in mobile have decided to say that mobile advertising is actually a good thing.

Google could have released their own social platform. Well they kind of side stepped that by delivering an open framework that everyone else, like MySpace and Facebook could plug-in to, there by giving Google instant access to shared social data and users. It was a brilliant move. One nobody could really refuse and for not that much (a code framework and a server farm), it meant Google could be and is now a major player in the social space.

And Google could nave released their own social network, and they again basically side stepped this, by announcing what I will call “social search”. Think of Google with Digg (with reviewing and rating) built in to each entry. Then add the “death ray” of “personal search” and then add “people networking” where you can share your data with your friends, who just happen to be plugged in to you from MySpace, Facebook, Technorati, et al, via, yep you guessed it, the Google social framework.
All brilliant! All with no real down side, except that Google wins and Google wins. So who loses market share? Well everyone except Google of course ;-)

Now this isn’t much of a problem for already established major players. 50% of a lot, is still a lot. Who it will kill is the small guy, like me! And probably you…

I say this because as small players in a big world, we have to specialise and we have to operate in a niche. By definition these already have minute market share. We used to have a chance because by going for lots of small potatoes, we could end up with a big bag of chips. Small potatoes are so small, that most people can’t be bothered aiming for them.

It was already happening, but now it is definitely on the cards. Personalised search is the death ray, because it means everybodys search results will be their own unique set. (See the TSV utility for an example of the way this is going, live today.) The only players who will have any diversity and appear across several peoples results, is the established players. The ones that can amass momentum, because Google says so.

All I’m saying is that the market will become so fragmented that even micro niche players will be confused. And in between that, any attempt at “automation” to manage these micro niches, will be seen by the mighty G, at some stage, as black hat spam and they’ll knee cap you.

This scenario may sound far fetched, or at least a long way off, but it is nearer than even I predicted. The bottom line is the major players have started to notice and they do what major players do. They eat up anything that annoys them that has any significance and market share or positioning.

It makes no difference to Johny surfer if he buys an ebook (or an mp3) from Jenny Smith or Virgin. The Internet is faceless and impersonal. It makes no odds. Except to the Jenny Smiths of this world; that is me and you.

I hinted a while back now, that there was really only six ways to combat this threat. And one of them is the major one. Its time to buck your ideas up. If you wait till the horse has bolted, you will suddenly find you have no horse to go collect horses with any more….

Google was the old stable master. Google is the new stable master. Google own the school, the factory, the houses and the directory of horse stables and shares control of the index of horse riders.

Get with the program, or be prepared for a very rough ride.

You can think I am off my head and scare mongering by all means. But when you wake up one day and all your horses have bolted, I won’t even bother to say “I told you so”.

If you want it to change, then LMK. There only are six answers. I have 1 of them.

Update:

We’re still only at 83 visionairies who understand how seminal this is going to be. It needs over 250 to make it work. It needs that many players to deliver it. Without the numbers it won’t work. This IS the point. It isn’t something “1 man” can deliver. Regardless of who that man is.
So with that “critical mass” in mind, I am creating a “group buy”. I don’t have the personal capacity to deliver this to just a handful, so it is all or nothing.

PAY NOTHING (and get nothing) unless we reach critical mass. But if we do reach critical mass then by honour you agree to pay.

The offer is explained when you join the autoresponder list. There are 3 levels of committment. The 4th level is not to play, which must mean you’re planning on retiring from business in the next 18 months. My congratulations on your early retirement!

For any one left standing, your future starts by filling in your real email.

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